As the third quarter draws to a close, the global toluene diisocyanate (TDI) market has entered a critical adjustment phase, driven by overseas capacity withdrawal and domestic manufacturers’ upward price adjustments, reshaping supply‑demand patterns for the polyurethane raw material ahead of the fourth‑quarter peak consumption season.

On September 29, South Korea’s OCI officially announced its decision to fully terminate TDI manufacturing and sales operations. The producer holds an annual TDI capacity of 50,000 metric tons, and production will completely halt starting December 18, 2026. This capacity exit will remove a notable supply source from Northeast Asia, which has long been an important export‑oriented TDI production base. Market participants expect the shutdown to tighten regional available spot goods and offer solid psychological support for global TDI prices in Q4.

Domestically, leading Chinese TDI producer Wanhua Chemical raised its ex‑factory quotation for early‑October TDI to 18500 RMB per ton, sending a strong bullish signal across the domestic market and lifting overall spot price sentiment. As of September 29, the domestic TDI benchmark price stood at 17700 RMB per ton, showing a steady upward trend from late August. During the first seven months of 2026, China’s TDI exports reached 380,164 tons, rising 23.6% year‑on‑year, with sharp export growth to emerging markets such as India, demonstrating China’s expanding influence as a major global TDI supplier.

Looking at downstream sectors, TDI is widely consumed for flexible polyurethane foam, coatings, adhesives, sealants and elastomers, serving furniture, bedding, automotive interior and construction industries. Traditional Q4 is the seasonal demand window for furniture and home‑textile manufacturing. While downstream buyers remain prudent and avoid excessive stockpiling, sustained real‑order replenishment is anticipated in the coming weeks.

Cost‑side factors remain mixed. Crude‑oil‑linked feedstock volatility keeps bringing cost uncertainties. Market analysts hold divergent views on future trends. Some traders believe overseas capacity loss plus domestic manufacturers’ firm pricing stance will keep TDI prices on an upward track. Others warn that if downstream demand recovery falls short of expectations, price gains may be capped. International buyers are advised to track factory announcements, port inventory levels and shipment lead times closely when arranging procurement for Q4 and early 2027.